BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lesser Scaup In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWaterfowl

Lesser Scaup in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 198% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+198%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Scaup has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 198% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Lesser Scaup In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Scaup in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Scaup in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 0.31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.150.000.48
20270.150.000.48
20280.150.000.48
20290.150.000.48
20300.150.000.48

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Lesser Scaup in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
RoyMONTANA112025
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA101987
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA101997
IngomarMONTANA62025
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA61993
HighwoodMONTANA52011
BucknumWYOMING52001
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA42025
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA41997
LeroyMONTANA32017
FlatwillowMONTANA31990
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA31990
KayceeWYOMING32025
BrusettMONTANA21989
JordanMONTANA21987
CircleMONTANA21994
ShawmutMONTANA22023
AlbionMONTANA21993
WinifredMONTANA22023
Coleman CouleeMONTANA22023
Wheat BasinMONTANA22022
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA22009
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA22011
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA21997
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.