BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Scaup In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesWaterfowl

Lesser Scaup in Badlands and Prairies has edged up: up 23% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+23%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lesser Scaup in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Lesser Scaup In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Scaup in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 57% by 2028 — from 0.09 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+57%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Scaup in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 57% by 2028 — from 0.09 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.46). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.140.000.46
20250.140.000.46
20260.140.000.46
20270.140.000.46
20280.140.000.46

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Lesser Scaup in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA101987
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA101997
Two DotMONTANA62017
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA61993
HighwoodMONTANA52011
BucknumWYOMING52001
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA41997
LeroyMONTANA32017
FlatwillowMONTANA31990
IngomarMONTANA32016
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA32021
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA31990
RoyMONTANA22019
BrusettMONTANA21989
JordanMONTANA21987
CircleMONTANA21994
ShawmutMONTANA22023
AlbionMONTANA21993
WinifredMONTANA22023
Coleman CouleeMONTANA22023
Wheat BasinMONTANA22022
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA22009
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA22011
OttumwaSOUTH-DAKOTA21997
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA22019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.