BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Scaup In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauWaterfowl

Lesser Scaup in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 369% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+369%Since 1982
29Routes In Region
41Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Lesser Scaup has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 369% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Scaup in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.58 (95% range 0.18–0.98). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029
0.58Projected 2029 index
0.18–0.9895% range
±20.2%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.560.160.95
20260.560.170.96
20270.570.170.97
20280.580.180.97
20290.580.180.98

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Lesser Scaup in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Rio Grnds RsCOLORADO782024
Mcphee Res.COLORADO122012
DinosaurCOLORADO102012
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO62009
Skyline DrivUTAH62002
M Warner ResUTAH62024
VernalUTAH42016
WarbonnetWYOMING42017
Willow PeakCOLORADO32018
TincupCOLORADO32024
Main CanyonUTAH32018
Moon LakeUTAH32000
ColonaCOLORADO22014
WaldenCOLORADO22016
Dunckley PasCOLORADO22017
PiedraCOLORADO22023
Uintah NfUTAH21992
BrookhurstWYOMING21992
Lost LakeCOLORADO12002
TarryallCOLORADO11989
DoylevilleCOLORADO12012
Groundhog RsCOLORADO11995
Ragged Mtn.COLORADO12006
Yellowjacket PassCOLORADO12022
Stillwater PassCOLORADO11999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.