BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Nighthawk In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Lesser Nighthawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-48%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lesser Nighthawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+82%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±121.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 82% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.44). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.000.44
20260.170.000.44
20270.170.000.44
20280.170.000.44
20290.170.000.44

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Lesser Nighthawk in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
IndianolaTEXAS41974
PetronilaTEXAS22024
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS22022
Bayside 2TEXAS22001
Lag AtascosaTEXAS12018
Loyola BeachTEXAS12003
BaysideTEXAS12010
San PedroTEXAS12023
Bayside 3TEXAS12019
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS12019
McfaddinTEXAS12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.