BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lesser Nighthawk In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Lesser Nighthawk in Tamaulipan Brushlands has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-60%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Nighthawk has fallen sharply in Tamaulipan Brushlands: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lesser Nighthawk In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 269% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±248.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+269%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±248.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 269% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.7 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±248.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.90.0013
20273.90.0013
20283.80.0013
20293.70.0013
20303.70.0013

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Lesser Nighthawk in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CatarinaTEXAS342010
EncinalTEXAS132010
Pedro CreekTEXAS112010
LaredoTEXAS102023
Catarina 3TEXAS72023
ProgresoTEXAS62010
RachalTEXAS51996
KingsvilleTEXAS51989
La PryorTEXAS52005
El SauzTEXAS52023
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS52025
San YgnacioTEXAS41985
El IndioTEXAS42007
Catarina 2TEXAS32017
DilleyTEXAS32025
HeidelbergTEXAS32019
RandadoTEXAS22024
HondoTEXAS22024
RaymondvilleTEXAS22019
SejitaTEXAS22019
MillettTEXAS22012
Agua NuevaTEXAS11999
ZapataTEXAS11984
Mirando CityTEXAS12025
George WestTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.