BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Nighthawk In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsAerial insectivores

Lesser Nighthawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+83%Since 1970
67Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Lesser Nighthawk has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 253% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.2–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+253%Change by 2029
4.7Projected 2029 index
2.2–7.295% range
±140.1%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20254.52.07.0
20264.52.07.0
20274.62.17.1
20284.62.27.1
20294.72.27.2

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Lesser Nighthawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA582000
ArabyARIZONA142023
HopeARIZONA132009
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA132010
DatelandARIZONA112021
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA112023
NilandCALIFORNIA102022
Cutter 2ARIZONA92018
Hope 2ARIZONA92019
Havasu LakeCALIFORNIA92003
Cibola LakeARIZONA72024
Gila BendARIZONA62024
PisinimoARIZONA61993
Parker DamCALIFORNIA62003
Greenwater VCALIFORNIA62024
Cabeza PrietARIZONA52024
New RiverARIZONA42016
Willow SpgsCALIFORNIA41975
IvanpahCALIFORNIA42004
Red RockARIZONA32014
Ajo 2ARIZONA32022
Bates WellARIZONA32021
Lucerne ValCALIFORNIA31996
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA32024
Val Of FireNEVADA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.