BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lesser Nighthawk In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsAerial insectivores

Lesser Nighthawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has surged: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+83%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lesser Nighthawk has surged in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts: up 83% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lesser Nighthawk In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 253% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.2–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+253%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–7.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±140.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 253% by 2029 — from 1.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 2.2–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.52.07.0
20264.52.07.0
20274.62.17.1
20284.62.27.1
20294.72.27.2

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Lesser Nighthawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA582000
ArabyARIZONA142023
HopeARIZONA132009
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA132010
DatelandARIZONA112021
Palo VerdeCALIFORNIA112023
NilandCALIFORNIA102022
Cutter 2ARIZONA92018
Hope 2ARIZONA92019
Havasu LakeCALIFORNIA92003
Cibola LakeARIZONA72024
Gila BendARIZONA62024
PisinimoARIZONA61993
Parker DamCALIFORNIA62003
Greenwater VCALIFORNIA62024
Cabeza PrietARIZONA52024
New RiverARIZONA42016
Willow SpgsCALIFORNIA41975
IvanpahCALIFORNIA42004
Red RockARIZONA32014
Ajo 2ARIZONA32022
Bates WellARIZONA32021
Lucerne ValCALIFORNIA31996
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA32024
Val Of FireNEVADA32024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.