BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lesser Nighthawk In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsAerial insectivores

Lesser Nighthawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has increased: up 35% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+35%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lesser Nighthawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Lesser Nighthawk In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 365% by 2030 — from 0.96 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 1.9–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±216.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+365%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.9–7.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±216.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lesser Nighthawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 365% by 2030 — from 0.96 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 1.9–7.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±216.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.31.76.9
20274.31.77.0
20284.41.87.0
20294.41.87.1
20304.51.97.1

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Lesser Nighthawk in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Coachella CnCALIFORNIA582000
ArabyARIZONA142023
HopeARIZONA132009
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA132010
Cutter 2ARIZONA92018
Hope 2ARIZONA92019
Havasu LakeCALIFORNIA92003
Cibola LakeARIZONA72024
PisinimoARIZONA61993
Parker DamCALIFORNIA62003
New RiverARIZONA42016
Willow SpgsCALIFORNIA41975
IvanpahCALIFORNIA42004
Greenwater VCALIFORNIA42025
BeattyNEVADA42025
Red RockARIZONA32014
Cabeza PrietARIZONA32025
Ajo 2ARIZONA32022
Bates WellARIZONA32021
Lucerne ValCALIFORNIA31996
NilandCALIFORNIA32025
Val Of FireNEVADA32024
WikieupARIZONA22022
QuartzsiteARIZONA22019
LagunaARIZONA22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.