Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

LeConte's Thrasher In Coastal California

LeConte's Thrasher in Coastal California has collapsed: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-93%Since 1970
6Routes In Region
22Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

LeConte's Thrasher has collapsed in Coastal California: down 93% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, LeConte's Thrasher in Coastal California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1534.8%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.000.4095% range
±1534.8%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.000.40
20260.000.000.40
20270.000.000.40
20280.000.000.40
20290.000.000.40

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording LeConte's Thrasher in Coastal California.
BakersfieldCALIFORNIA41973
MaricopaCALIFORNIA22024
Carrizo PlnCALIFORNIA21972
ShafterCALIFORNIA11989
ArvinCALIFORNIA11972
Buena VistaCALIFORNIA12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.