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Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

LeConte's Sparrow In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

LeConte's Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-24%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for LeConte's Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

LeConte's Sparrow In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, LeConte's Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±183.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±183.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, LeConte's Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±183.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.050.000.14
20240.050.000.14
20250.050.000.14
20260.050.000.14
20270.050.000.14

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording LeConte's Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Buena VistaWISCONSIN142013
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN42022
EdwardsMINNESOTA22002
MerrillWISCONSIN21995
Stevens PtWISCONSIN22012
StetsonvilleWISCONSIN21998
EvergreenMINNESOTA12009
Brook ParkMINNESOTA12008
AshbyMINNESOTA12018
LoraineWISCONSIN12002
CumberlandWISCONSIN12001
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN12019
CadottWISCONSIN12009
UnityWISCONSIN11972
MatherWISCONSIN12021
ElderonWISCONSIN11989
CascoWISCONSIN12004
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN11967

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.