BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

LeConte's Sparrow In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

LeConte's Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for LeConte's Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, LeConte's Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 95% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+95%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±152%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, LeConte's Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 95% by 2029 — from 0.17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.34 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±152%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.330.000.67
20260.330.000.67
20270.330.000.67
20280.340.000.67
20290.340.000.68

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording LeConte's Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine RiverMINNESOTA42003
PhillipsWISCONSIN42001
PickfordMICHIGAN32024
GreenbushMINNESOTA32024
BayfieldWISCONSIN32019
CrandonWISCONSIN32010
BootjackMICHIGAN21971
Seney NwrMICHIGAN22016
BackusMINNESOTA22000
FloodwoodMINNESOTA22000
Little ForkMINNESOTA22024
Nett LakeMINNESOTA22024
OntonagonMICHIGAN12019
HermanMICHIGAN11997
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN12010
Maple GroveMICHIGAN12013
GilchristMICHIGAN11987
Pine RiverMICHIGAN12013
CromwellMINNESOTA12022
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA11981
Mille LacsMINNESOTA12009
LockportMINNESOTA12004
Hart LakeMINNESOTA12011
Island LakeMINNESOTA12017
CohassetMINNESOTA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.