BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Tern In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Least Tern in Gulf Coastal Prairie has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+14%Since 1971
24Routes In Region
47Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Least Tern in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Least Tern in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 55% by 2029 — from 0.81 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.00–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2029
1.3Projected 2029 index
0.00–3.895% range
±75.2%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.20.003.8
20261.20.003.8
20271.20.003.8
20281.20.003.8
20291.30.003.8

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Least Tern in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Oyster LakeTEXAS162024
Grand IsleLOUISIANA112019
Bayside 2TEXAS92004
JuniorLOUISIANA81988
Bayside 3TEXAS72016
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS62023
Padre Island PaisTEXAS52015
StowellTEXAS42023
CreoleLOUISIANA31978
Loyola BeachTEXAS32008
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA21976
HackberryLOUISIANA22016
Sabine NwrLOUISIANA21996
Lag AtascosaTEXAS21985
IndianolaTEXAS22014
WinnieTEXAS21997
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS22021
LafitteLOUISIANA11989
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA12024
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA12015
DanburyTEXAS12009
ChinquapinTEXAS12006
BaysideTEXAS12010
Port AcresTEXAS12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.