BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Tern In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastWetland birds

Least Tern in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has fallen sharply: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-60%Since 1968
32Routes In Region
54Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Least Tern has fallen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 60% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Least Tern in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±407.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.5495% range
±407.1%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.000.54
20260.000.000.54
20270.000.000.54
20280.000.000.54
20290.000.000.54

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Least Tern in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Bethany BchDELAWARE211990
Gay HeadMASSACHUSETTS212024
Lowes XrdsDELAWARE201987
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS82023
HuntingtonNEW-YORK72011
Golden HillMARYLAND61995
ChilmarkMASSACHUSETTS41983
HarringtonDELAWARE32018
BlackbirdDELAWARE31998
NewburyportMASSACHUSETTS31997
Jones BeachNEW-YORK32006
DoverDELAWARE21974
MiltonDELAWARE21971
Kittery PtMAINE22018
EastonMARYLAND22019
E DennisMASSACHUSETTS22000
Toms RiverNEW-JERSEY21975
VillasNEW-JERSEY21981
Cape May ChNEW-JERSEY21992
White StoneVIRGINIA21996
GeorgetownDELAWARE11994
NortheastMARYLAND12004
ElktonMARYLAND12012
MillingtonMARYLAND12009
Piney NeckMARYLAND12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.