BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Tern In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyWetland birds

Least Tern in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-67%Since 1968
20Routes In Region
46Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Least Tern has fallen sharply in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Least Tern in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 0.30 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–0.75). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029
0.24Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.7595% range
±92.3%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.250.000.76
20260.250.000.76
20270.240.000.76
20280.240.000.75
20290.240.000.75

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Least Tern in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY102014
WilsonARKANSAS92024
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE42022
ShawLOUISIANA32015
DundeeMISSISSIPPI32022
GillettARKANSAS22014
BelairLOUISIANA22002
Baton RougeLOUISIANA22015
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI22015
HaytiMISSOURI22021
PawpawTENNESSEE22011
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE22018
EudoraARKANSAS12009
HughesARKANSAS12021
South BendARKANSAS12012
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS12022
BardwellKENTUCKY12000
CarlisleLOUISIANA11988
DeventerMISSOURI12024
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.