BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Flycatcher In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Piedmont has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-85%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
25YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Flycatcher has collapsed in Piedmont: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Least Flycatcher In Piedmont Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2019, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±196.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2019TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2019 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±196.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Piedmont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2019, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.06). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±196.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662019
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20150.010.000.06
20160.000.000.06
20170.000.000.06
20180.000.000.06
20190.000.000.06

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
West GrovePENNSYLVANIA51992
TaylorstownVIRGINIA41985
CrotonNEW-JERSEY21970
PottersvilleNEW-JERSEY21989
CollegevillePENNSYLVANIA21971
LabottPENNSYLVANIA21969
Silver SpgMARYLAND11966
RandallstownMARYLAND11977
Van BibberMARYLAND11982
SandbrookNEW-JERSEY12007
JordanNORTH-CAROLINA11987
Mt GretnaPENNSYLVANIA11969
AspersPENNSYLVANIA11974
Mt Gretna 2PENNSYLVANIA12002
Barton CreekSOUTH-CAROLINA12011
TrymeVIRGINIA12014
ShipmanVIRGINIA11972
ElamsvilleVIRGINIA11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.