BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Least Flycatcher In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-24%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
143Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Least Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Least Flycatcher In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.99 (95% range 0.52–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.99Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.52–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.99 (95% range 0.52–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.541.5
20271.00.531.5
20281.00.531.5
20291.000.521.5
20300.990.521.5

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GreshamWISCONSIN192025
MerrillWISCONSIN142025
New LondonMINNESOTA102024
Stevens PtWISCONSIN102023
Sherburne NrMINNESOTA92025
MatherWISCONSIN62023
StetsonvilleWISCONSIN62025
ScottvilleMICHIGAN52025
OwendaleMICHIGAN51994
EvergreenMINNESOTA52025
StratfordWISCONSIN52025
Big RapidsMICHIGAN41990
TyreMICHIGAN41996
Whitewater 2MINNESOTA42019
CumberlandWISCONSIN42024
UnityWISCONSIN42024
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN42023
KnoxINDIANA32011
AdairMICHIGAN31995
Brook ParkMINNESOTA32025
HolwayWISCONSIN31989
HatfieldWISCONSIN31997
ManawaWISCONSIN32025
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN32023
Beaver DamWISCONSIN32004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.