BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Least Flycatcher In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 390% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+390%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Flycatcher has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 390% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Least Flycatcher In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 0.71 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.65–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.65–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 0.71 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.65–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.00.611.4
20271.00.621.4
20281.00.631.4
20291.00.641.5
20301.10.651.5

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reed PointMONTANA182025
HighwoodMONTANA112025
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA92024
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA72012
ForsythMONTANA52023
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA52019
BrandenbergMONTANA42019
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA42025
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA42025
RavenWYOMING41995
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA32025
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA32025
DaytonWYOMING32025
BrusettMONTANA22024
JordanMONTANA22017
CircleMONTANA22016
LocateMONTANA22025
St XavierMONTANA22011
Flatwillow 2MONTANA22023
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA22019
LindsayMONTANA22024
Wheat BasinMONTANA22023
Winifred 2MONTANA22024
Bull Mtn.MONTANA22021
LarkNORTH-DAKOTA21974

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.