BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Flycatcher In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 380% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+380%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
69Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Flycatcher has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 380% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Least Flycatcher In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.67–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.67–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.1 (95% range 0.67–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.621.4
20261.00.631.4
20271.00.641.4
20281.10.661.5
20291.10.671.5

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Reed PointMONTANA182024
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA92024
HighwoodMONTANA82024
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA72012
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA62023
DaytonWYOMING62024
ForsythMONTANA52023
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA52019
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA52024
BrandenbergMONTANA42019
RavenWYOMING41995
LocateMONTANA32024
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA32018
BrusettMONTANA22024
JordanMONTANA22017
CircleMONTANA22016
SavageMONTANA22021
Two DotMONTANA22024
St XavierMONTANA22011
Flatwillow 2MONTANA22023
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA22019
LindsayMONTANA22024
Miles CityMONTANA22024
Wheat BasinMONTANA22023
Winifred 2MONTANA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.