BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Least Flycatcher In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1994.

-70%Since 1994TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
18YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Least Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Least Flycatcher In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.01). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19922030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.000.02
20270.000.000.02
20280.000.000.01
20290.000.000.01
20300.000.000.01

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Fletcher PkWYOMING22007
CastletonCOLORADO12011
AlamosaCOLORADO12010
Rifle FallsCOLORADO12025
BrookhurstWYOMING12012
Fox ParkWYOMING12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.