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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Flycatcher In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
156Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Least Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Least Flycatcher In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.14–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.14–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 28% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.14–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.10.553.7
20262.00.453.6
20271.90.343.5
20281.80.243.4
20291.70.143.3

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK271975
NesowadnehunMAINE202021
WatervilleVERMONT181980
Hope FallsNEW-YORK141995
InletNEW-YORK142017
WarrenMAINE131990
Horse MtnMAINE132011
Crawford NotNEW-HAMPSHIRE101975
SabattisNEW-YORK91983
SciotaNEW-YORK92006
St Regis FlsNEW-YORK92017
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS82024
Cummington 2MASSACHUSETTS82024
KasoagNEW-YORK82024
MarlboroVERMONT82024
ManchesterMAINE71995
BaxterMAINE71988
WashburnMAINE72005
SheffieldMASSACHUSETTS72022
HancockMASSACHUSETTS72015
PetersburgNEW-YORK72012
Blue Ridge SNEW-YORK72010
North RiverNEW-YORK72007
HardwickVERMONT72024
Bowdoin CtrMAINE62013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.