BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Flycatcher In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-61%Since 1968
83Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Least Flycatcher has fallen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 0.94 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029
0.61Projected 2029 index
0.00–1.795% range
±34.5%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.800.001.9
20260.750.001.8
20270.700.001.8
20280.660.001.7
20290.610.001.7

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
West BangorNEW-YORK151999
ShaftsburyVERMONT152024
BalmatNEW-YORK112008
NashvilleNEW-YORK72018
FowlerNEW-YORK71968
PulaskiNEW-YORK62024
N WilmurtNEW-YORK61998
North PownalVERMONT62018
HinesburgVERMONT61994
N VictoryNEW-YORK51972
BristolVERMONT52018
AusterlitzNEW-YORK42024
MendonNEW-YORK41994
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA41979
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA42023
W ShokanNEW-YORK32019
DuanesburgNEW-YORK32021
CastileNEW-YORK32024
ClintonNEW-YORK32002
HopkintonNEW-YORK32021
RhinebeckNEW-YORK22024
GhentNEW-YORK22017
Ballston LkNEW-YORK21970
TrumansburgNEW-YORK22015
RushvilleNEW-YORK22018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.