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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Least Flycatcher In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-15%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Least Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Least Flycatcher In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 9.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 3.7–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–8.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 9.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.1 (95% range 3.7–8.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.7%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.44.08.8
20276.33.98.7
20286.23.88.6
20296.23.88.5
20306.13.78.5

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA452025
BenaMINNESOTA341977
JordanMINNESOTA272025
ShingletonMICHIGAN262025
Crane LakeMINNESOTA252025
Maple GroveMICHIGAN242025
Imp LakeMICHIGAN232019
LockportMINNESOTA232025
Big Island LakeMICHIGAN222010
BlackduckMINNESOTA222022
CavourWISCONSIN212025
Hart LakeMINNESOTA202025
Popple RiverWISCONSIN202025
HollisterWISCONSIN192025
GlendaleMINNESOTA182025
PhillipsWISCONSIN182025
BackusMINNESOTA172025
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA172022
BigforkMINNESOTA162025
Nett LakeMINNESOTA162024
MahtowaMINNESOTA132023
Cass LakeMINNESOTA132016
Rib LakeWISCONSIN132025
Cluster LakesMICHIGAN122010
CromwellMINNESOTA122025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.