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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Flycatcher In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-20%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Least Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Least Flycatcher In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 8.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 3.7–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–8.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 30% by 2029 — from 8.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.9 (95% range 3.7–8.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.24.08.4
20266.13.98.4
20276.03.88.3
20286.03.78.2
20295.93.78.1

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BenaMINNESOTA341977
Sawbill LndgMINNESOTA312024
JordanMINNESOTA262023
Imp LakeMICHIGAN232019
Crane LakeMINNESOTA232024
Big Island LakeMICHIGAN222010
BlackduckMINNESOTA222022
Popple RiverWISCONSIN222024
BackusMINNESOTA202024
WaskishMINNESOTA192024
BigforkMINNESOTA182024
LockportMINNESOTA172024
Sherry LakeMINNESOTA172022
MellenWISCONSIN172024
ShingletonMICHIGAN162024
Nett LakeMINNESOTA162024
GlendaleMINNESOTA152024
HollisterWISCONSIN152024
AmbergWISCONSIN152024
FlambeauWISCONSIN142024
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN132024
Maple GroveMICHIGAN132024
MahtowaMINNESOTA132023
Cass LakeMINNESOTA132016
Grand ViewWISCONSIN132024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.