BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Least Flycatcher In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesAerial insectivores

Least Flycatcher in Northern Rockies has surged: up 631% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+631%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Least Flycatcher in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Least Flycatcher In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.35 (95% range 0.16–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.35Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.16–0.5595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Flycatcher in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.35 (95% range 0.16–0.55). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.340.140.53
20270.340.140.54
20280.340.150.54
20290.350.150.55
20300.350.160.55

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Least Flycatcher in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Libby DamMONTANA392015
Clyde ParkMONTANA112025
NaplesIDAHO82025
ArleeMONTANA82025
Yellow PineIDAHO71993
Pagil GulchMONTANA62025
Fish CreekMONTANA42000
Painted RockMONTANA42010
EtheteWYOMING42025
Pablo Res.MONTANA32015
Wolf CreekMONTANA32022
GreenoughMONTANA32002
Hunter PeakWYOMING32010
MeeteetseWYOMING32024
HarmonyWYOMING32022
LayCOLORADO22024
Lolo PassIDAHO22019
BurgdorfIDAHO21992
FeathervilleIDAHO21996
KalispellMONTANA22018
St RegisMONTANA22009
NinemileMONTANA22008
Wise RiverMONTANA22008
St. Mary 2MONTANA22025
East Glacier ParkMONTANA22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.