BirdAnalyst
Species · Alabama · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Least Bittern Population Trend in Alabama

All statesWetland birds

Least Bittern in Alabama has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-72%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Least Bittern Trends in AlabamaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Least Bittern in Alabama. See the full index history below.

Least Bittern Population Forecast in Alabama

If the recent trend holds, Least Bittern in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Least Bittern in Alabama is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.010.000.04
20230.010.000.04
20240.010.000.04
20250.010.000.04
20260.010.000.04

Least Bittern Survey Routes in Alabama

Routes recording Least Bittern in Alabama.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Alabama Pt319901975
Nixburg119991999
Brantley119731973
Valhermoso Spgs119881988
Wheeler Dam120012000
Pine Grove119831976
Dauphin Is119771966
Alabama Pt 2120072007
Gainestown Ferry120032003
Whitehall120212001
Drummond120012001
Chacaloochee Bay120192009
Billingsley120012001
Grangeburg120022002

Least Bittern Population Trend in Other States

arizonaarkansascaliforniaconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourinebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooregonsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.