BirdAnalyst
Species · California · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lawrence's Goldfinch Population Trend in California

All statesGeneralists

Lawrence's Goldfinch in California has held roughly steady: down 9% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-9%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lawrence's Goldfinch Trends in CaliforniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lawrence's Goldfinch in California. See the full index history below.

Lawrence's Goldfinch Population Forecast in California

If the recent trend holds, Lawrence's Goldfinch in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.79 (95% range 0.31–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.79Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.31–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lawrence's Goldfinch in California is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.79 (95% range 0.31–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.780.311.3
20260.780.311.3
20270.790.311.3
20280.790.311.3
20290.790.311.3

Lawrence's Goldfinch Survey Routes in California

Routes recording Lawrence's Goldfinch in California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sisquoc2020001970
Tranquillity1320241995
Oilfields1220001981
Foster Park1119851968
Lockwood Val1120191970
Oak Grove1020241972
Fallsvale1019751970
Calif City919951995
Greenfield920241973
Mt Pinos820011969
Tujunga820111970
Sanger820212011
Mt Pinos 2820112005
Angelus Oaks820051989
Tres Pinos720011972
Valyermo720181971
Lakeshore720242024
Cal Hot Spgs720191993
Alamar720171998
Lake Hemet619811970
Carmel Val620241973
Jacumba620241973
White River619921972
Arvin620151972
Nubieber520181984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.