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Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lawrence's Goldfinch In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaGeneralists

Lawrence's Goldfinch in Coastal California has edged up: up 19% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+19%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lawrence's Goldfinch in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lawrence's Goldfinch in Coastal California is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.0–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+38%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lawrence's Goldfinch in Coastal California is projected to rise about 38% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 1.0–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.992.8
20261.91.002.8
20271.91.02.8
20281.91.02.8
20291.91.02.8

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Lawrence's Goldfinch in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SisquocCALIFORNIA202000
TranquillityCALIFORNIA132024
OilfieldsCALIFORNIA122000
Foster ParkCALIFORNIA111985
Lockwood ValCALIFORNIA112019
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA102024
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA101975
GreenfieldCALIFORNIA92024
Mt PinosCALIFORNIA82001
TujungaCALIFORNIA82011
SangerCALIFORNIA82021
Mt Pinos 2CALIFORNIA82011
Angelus OaksCALIFORNIA82005
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA72001
ValyermoCALIFORNIA72018
Cal Hot SpgsCALIFORNIA72019
AlamarCALIFORNIA72017
Lake HemetCALIFORNIA61981
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA62024
JacumbaCALIFORNIA62024
White RiverCALIFORNIA61992
ArvinCALIFORNIA62015
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA52024
AnzaCALIFORNIA52004
Mt BaldyCALIFORNIA51996

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.