BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lawrence's Goldfinch In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

Lawrence's Goldfinch in Coastal California has risen sharply: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+69%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lawrence's Goldfinch has risen sharply in Coastal California: up 69% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Lawrence's Goldfinch In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lawrence's Goldfinch in Coastal California is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.1–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±45.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lawrence's Goldfinch in Coastal California is projected to fall about 20% by 2030 — from 2.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.1–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±45.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.91.02.8
20271.91.12.8
20282.01.12.9
20292.01.12.9
20302.01.12.9

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Lawrence's Goldfinch in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SisquocCALIFORNIA202000
FolsomCALIFORNIA182025
Carmel ValCALIFORNIA182025
Yolla BollyCALIFORNIA142025
TranquillityCALIFORNIA132024
OilfieldsCALIFORNIA122000
Foster ParkCALIFORNIA111985
Lockwood ValCALIFORNIA112019
GreenfieldCALIFORNIA112025
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA101975
Mt PinosCALIFORNIA82001
TujungaCALIFORNIA82011
SangerCALIFORNIA82021
Mt Pinos 2CALIFORNIA82011
Angelus OaksCALIFORNIA82005
Tres PinosCALIFORNIA72001
ValyermoCALIFORNIA72018
AdelaidaCALIFORNIA72025
Cal Hot SpgsCALIFORNIA72019
AlamarCALIFORNIA72017
Lake HemetCALIFORNIA61981
Cuyamaca PkCALIFORNIA62025
White RiverCALIFORNIA61992
ArvinCALIFORNIA62015
AnzaCALIFORNIA52004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.