BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 15 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lawrence's Goldfinch In Sierra Nevada

All regionsSierra NevadaGeneralists

Lawrence's Goldfinch in Sierra Nevada has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-94%Since 1972
10Routes In Region
45Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Lawrence's Goldfinch has collapsed in Sierra Nevada: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lawrence's Goldfinch in Sierra Nevada is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.37 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±251.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–2.495% range
±251.5%Backtest error
19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.002.4
20260.000.002.4
20270.000.002.4
20280.000.002.4
20290.000.002.4

Routes In Sierra Nevada

Routes recording Lawrence's Goldfinch in Sierra Nevada.
LakeshoreCALIFORNIA72024
Silver CityCALIFORNIA51996
Cottage SpgsCALIFORNIA31969
Tuolumne GroveCALIFORNIA32021
Greenhorn MtCALIFORNIA22008
Bass LakeCALIFORNIA12011
PlacervilleCALIFORNIA12017
WawonaCALIFORNIA12012
Pine MountainCALIFORNIA12010
KernvilleCALIFORNIA12008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.