BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Laughing Gull In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainWetland birds

Laughing Gull in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 349% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+349%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Laughing Gull has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 349% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Laughing Gull In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Laughing Gull in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 471% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 2.2–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±297.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+471%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.2–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±297.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Laughing Gull in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to rise about 471% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.2 (95% range 2.2–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±297.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.81.816
20268.91.916
20279.02.016
20289.12.116
20299.22.216

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Laughing Gull in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ErnulNORTH-CAROLINA5002008
Bon SecourALABAMA4242023
Alabama PtALABAMA2292003
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA1291982
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA1272024
Dauphin Is 3ALABAMA772021
Santa RosaFLORIDA732003
Dauphin IsALABAMA611990
MerrimonNORTH-CAROLINA492023
Alabama Pt 2ALABAMA462019
CornlandVIRGINIA442014
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA421991
HilliardFLORIDA412024
Chacaloochee BayALABAMA362019
ArapahoeNORTH-CAROLINA351992
Kiawah IslandSOUTH-CAROLINA302024
Dauphin Is 2ALABAMA252019
CaytonNORTH-CAROLINA192024
GrandyNORTH-CAROLINA181975
Johns IsleSOUTH-CAROLINA181979
NewportNORTH-CAROLINA162023
MattamuskeetNORTH-CAROLINA162021
St. ElmoALABAMA152021
Milltail CrNORTH-CAROLINA152024
Ft Waltn BchFLORIDA142011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.