BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Bunting In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in Great Basin has fallen sharply: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

-64%Since 1995TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
19Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has fallen sharply in Great Basin: down 64% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

Lark Bunting In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±704.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±704.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Great Basin is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±704.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19902026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.020.000.24
20230.010.000.23
20240.010.000.23
20250.000.000.22
20260.000.000.22

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Lark Bunting in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Blackft ResIDAHO212004
BerylUTAH92019
Lost RiverIDAHO62006
Peplin MountainUTAH52005
SnowvilleUTAH42004
Pasadena ValIDAHO22000
Grouse CreekUTAH21996
DeltaUTAH22005
DuboisIDAHO12005
CareyIDAHO12012
Daniels ResIDAHO12004
PrestonIDAHO12004
Twin ButtesIDAHO12005
Kyle CanyonIDAHO12019
Circular BuIDAHO12015
Tractor FlatIDAHO12021
Salt SpringsUTAH12019
Johnson CanUTAH12004
Bear RiverUTAH12004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.