BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Bunting In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has collapsed: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-95%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has collapsed in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 95% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Bunting In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.73 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±110.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.73 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±110.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.005.2
20260.000.005.2
20270.000.005.2
20280.000.005.2
20290.000.005.2

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Lark Bunting in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AshlandKANSAS461984
HaysKANSAS192014
GoveKANSAS162017
RexfordKANSAS162024
CoatsKANSAS121972
DamarKANSAS112016
BelvidereNEBRASKA101970
SutherlandNEBRASKA102024
GordonNEBRASKA92024
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA92010
DouglasOKLAHOMA81972
ColdwaterKANSAS41998
HollenbergKANSAS41970
PhillipsburgKANSAS42019
StrattonNEBRASKA42024
RinggoldNEBRASKA42024
BrownleeNEBRASKA42016
Berwyn 2NEBRASKA42016
CulbertsonNEBRASKA42024
WoodwardOKLAHOMA42004
GrayKANSAS32014
MisslerKANSAS32019
Ash ValleyKANSAS32019
TableNEBRASKA32008
ArthurNEBRASKA32023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.