BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Bunting In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in Badlands and Prairies has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-77%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has collapsed in Badlands and Prairies: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Bunting In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 73% by 2030 — from 56 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-73%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 73% by 2030 — from 56 in 2025 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026240.0070
2027220.0067
2028200.0065
2029170.0063
2030150.0060

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Lark Bunting in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
IngomarMONTANA6452025
Pine TreeWYOMING3751995
Jordan SouthMONTANA3622025
ClarkelenWYOMING3441978
SavagetonWYOMING2952025
Harland FlatWYOMING2572025
HardingSOUTH-DAKOTA2502025
RoyMONTANA2312025
JordanMONTANA1892024
WebsterMONTANA1792025
BillWYOMING1752018
Custer 2MONTANA1332025
PowdervilleMONTANA1262025
Caballa CrkWYOMING1242025
NewcastleWYOMING1212025
CottonwoodSOUTH-DAKOTA1202025
RavenWYOMING1162025
MeadowdaleWYOMING1042025
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA1022015
Thunder BasinWYOMING1012025
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA882025
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA862015
KayceeWYOMING812025
ShawneeWYOMING772025
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA762004

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.