BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Bunting In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in Badlands and Prairies has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-79%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
126Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lark Bunting has collapsed in Badlands and Prairies: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Lark Bunting In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 71% by 2029 — from 51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-71%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 71% by 2029 — from 51 in 2024 to a central estimate of 15 (95% range 0.00–60). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025240.0069
2026220.0067
2027200.0065
2028170.0062
2029150.0060

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Lark Bunting in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShawneeWYOMING4772024
IngomarMONTANA4752024
Pine TreeWYOMING3751995
ClarkelenWYOMING3441978
MaurineSOUTH-DAKOTA2582024
SavagetonWYOMING2572019
MeadowdaleWYOMING2392019
NewcastleWYOMING2012024
JordanMONTANA1892024
BillWYOMING1752018
IndianSOUTH-DAKOTA1542024
Jordan SouthMONTANA1512024
RevaSOUTH-DAKOTA1282024
PowdervilleMONTANA1252024
Caballa CrkWYOMING1112023
DwyerWYOMING1032019
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA1022015
Soda WellWYOMING1012024
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA972024
RavenWYOMING912024
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA862015
RecluseWYOMING832024
LuskWYOMING832024
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA762004
HighlightWYOMING762007

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.