BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lark Bunting In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in Northern Rockies has declined: down 48% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-48%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Bunting in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Lark Bunting In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–9.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Northern Rockies is projected to rise about 35% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.00–9.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.30.0010
20273.30.0010.0
20283.20.009.9
20293.20.009.9
20303.10.009.8

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Lark Bunting in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CrowheartWYOMING2282004
MidvaleWYOMING832025
Muddy CreekMONTANA782015
BasinWYOMING532025
OttoWYOMING382025
LysiteWYOMING352024
Sand DrawWYOMING272025
ShirleyWYOMING252025
NowoodWYOMING232025
AnchorWYOMING211993
LovellWYOMING192025
CodyWYOMING182019
WorlandWYOMING172025
FarsonWYOMING172018
DuboisWYOMING152018
ArmintoWYOMING152025
EtheteWYOMING142025
Gas HillsWYOMING142012
Gas Hills 2WYOMING142025
Patrick DrawWYOMING121980
ClarkWYOMING112025
MoranWYOMING92004
SweetwaterWYOMING82024
Neponset ResUTAH52009
TensleepWYOMING52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.