BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lark Bunting In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesGrassland birds

Lark Bunting in Northern Rockies has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-34%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Lark Bunting in Northern Rockies. See the full index history below.

Lark Bunting In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 7.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-56%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lark Bunting in Northern Rockies is projected to fall about 56% by 2029 — from 7.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 0.00–10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.50.0010
20263.50.0010
20273.40.0010
20283.40.0010
20293.30.0010

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Lark Bunting in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gas Hills 2WYOMING2462024
CrowheartWYOMING2282004
ArmintoWYOMING2082024
Sand DrawWYOMING1412024
WorlandWYOMING982024
Muddy CreekMONTANA782015
PathfinderWYOMING752024
TensleepWYOMING732024
FrannieWYOMING492024
EtheteWYOMING482024
GeboWYOMING462021
LysiteWYOMING352024
BasinWYOMING272024
AnchorWYOMING211993
CodyWYOMING182019
NowoodWYOMING172024
FarsonWYOMING172018
DuboisWYOMING152018
ShirleyWYOMING152024
Gas HillsWYOMING142012
OttoWYOMING122024
Patrick DrawWYOMING121980
MoranWYOMING92004
LovellWYOMING82024
SweetwaterWYOMING82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.