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Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lapland Longspur In BCR 4

All regionsBCR 4Grassland birds

Lapland Longspur in BCR 4 has collapsed: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-98%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lapland Longspur has collapsed in BCR 4: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Lapland Longspur In BCR 4 Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lapland Longspur in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3780.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3780.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lapland Longspur in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.96). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3780.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.000.000.96
20270.000.000.96
20280.000.000.96
20290.000.000.96
20300.000.000.96

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Lapland Longspur in BCR 4.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Paxson LakeALASKA41992
Kobuk River (Short)ALASKA31992
MonahanALASKA22000
Hatcher PassALASKA21998
Caribou Mtn.ALASKA21993
MaclarenALASKA12002
CantwellALASKA12025
ToklatALASKA12016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.