Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lapland Longspur In BCR 4

All regions BCR 4 Generalists

Lapland Longspur in BCR 4 has collapsed: down 99% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

-99%Since 1986

7Routes In Region

20Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Lapland Longspur has collapsed in BCR 4: down 98% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lapland Longspur in BCR 4 is projected to stay roughly flat through 2021, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3002.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2021

0.00Projected 2021 index

0.00–0.9195% range

±3002.5%Backtest error

Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.

Year	Projected index	95% low	95% high
2017	0.00	0.00	0.91
2018	0.00	0.00	0.91
2019	0.00	0.00	0.91
2020	0.00	0.00	0.91
2021	0.00	0.00	0.91

Routes In BCR 4

Routes recording Lapland Longspur in BCR 4.

Paxson Lake	ALASKA	4	1992
Kobuk River (Short)	ALASKA	3	1992
Monahan	ALASKA	2	2000
Hatcher Pass	ALASKA	2	1998
Caribou Mtn.	ALASKA	2	1993
Maclaren	ALASKA	1	2002
Toklat	ALASKA	1	2016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.