BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 3 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Lapland Longspur In BCR 3

All regionsBCR 3Generalists

Lapland Longspur in BCR 3 has surged: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

+111%Since 1995
4Routes In Region
31Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Lapland Longspur has surged in BCR 3: up 111% on the route-weighted index since 1995.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Lapland Longspur in BCR 3 is projected to fall about 21% by 2029 — from 57 in 2024 to a central estimate of 45 (95% range 19–71). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2029
45Projected 2029 index
19–7195% range
±38.6%Backtest error
19932029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025431770
2026441770
2027441870
2028451871
2029451971

Routes In BCR 3

Routes recording Lapland Longspur in BCR 3.
Galbraith L.ALASKA1692024
UtqiagvikALASKA432023
Happy ValleyALASKA432024
Red DogALASKA152024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.