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Species · Alaska · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Lapland Longspur Population Trend in Alaska

All statesGrassland birds

Lapland Longspur in Alaska has fallen sharply: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-51%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
43YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Lapland Longspur Trends in AlaskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Lapland Longspur has fallen sharply in Alaska: down 51% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Lapland Longspur Population Forecast in Alaska

If the recent trend holds, Lapland Longspur in Alaska is projected to fall about 71% by 2030 — from 5.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-71%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–8.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Lapland Longspur in Alaska is projected to fall about 71% by 2030 — from 5.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.00–8.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19822030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.40.008.8
20272.20.008.6
20282.00.008.4
20291.80.008.2
20301.70.008.0

Lapland Longspur Survey Routes in Alaska

Routes recording Lapland Longspur in Alaska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Galbraith L.21020251993
Adak9020011983
Cold Bay5020251993
Happy Valley4720251993
Utqiagvik4320232021
Cold Bay (Short)3619921984
Cape Nome2220241993
Teller2220241993
Red Dog2120251995
St. Mary'S1820141993
Kotzebue (Short)719861986
Paxson Lake419921991
Kotzebue420232001
Nome320231993
Kobuk River (Short)319921992
Monahan220001983
Caribou Mtn.219931993
King Salmon220241993
Kugarak (Short)219861986
Hatcher Pass219981998
Chiniak119971985
Maclaren120021982
Cantwell120252025
Toklat120161982
Council120241993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.