BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Kentucky Warbler In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has collapsed: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-85%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Kentucky Warbler has collapsed in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 85% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Kentucky Warbler In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.140.000.36
20270.130.000.35
20280.120.000.34
20290.110.000.33
20300.100.000.32

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pt RepublicMARYLAND51989
Snow HillMARYLAND41976
Bennett MillNEW-JERSEY41976
Broomes IslMARYLAND31991
EastonMARYLAND32021
SinepuxentMARYLAND31978
Pr FrederickMARYLAND32025
PomonkeyMARYLAND22021
MelitotaMARYLAND21996
HarmonyMARYLAND22017
ViennaMARYLAND22024
MardelaMARYLAND21982
NewarkMARYLAND22013
Forest GroveMARYLAND22023
JessupMARYLAND22015
DavidsnvilleMARYLAND22010
Grove NeckMARYLAND21995
White StoneVIRGINIA22003
Colonial PkyVIRGINIA21992
Cape CharlesVIRGINIA22011
Mt PleasantDELAWARE12007
WilmingtonDELAWARE12000
HarringtonDELAWARE12021
FredericaDELAWARE12005
DoverDELAWARE11979

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.