BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Kentucky Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-63%Since 1968
291Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Kentucky Warbler has fallen sharply in Appalachian Mountains: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.11–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029
0.75Projected 2029 index
0.11–1.495% range
±44.5%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.800.161.4
20260.780.151.4
20270.770.141.4
20280.760.121.4
20290.750.111.4

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Tar HollowOHIO282024
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY152024
Pike S.F.OHIO142013
Scioto TrailOHIO132013
PhelpsKENTUCKY91997
DellOHIO92019
Smokey JctTENNESSEE92022
Pippa PassesKENTUCKY81997
Pine RidgeKENTUCKY81978
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY81995
Shawnee S.F. 2OHIO82019
ClinchportVIRGINIA81978
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY71997
Coal RunOHIO71992
NormalvillePENNSYLVANIA71970
Elk ValleyTENNESSEE72022
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA72021
SunnybrookKENTUCKY62021
NewcomerstwnOHIO61995
MarionVIRGINIA61982
Mt OliveALABAMA52024
TalladegaALABAMA52024
BreedenWEST-VIRGINIA52024
Pine GroveALABAMA42022
MaytownALABAMA42023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.