BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Kentucky Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
291Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Kentucky Warbler has fallen sharply in Appalachian Mountains: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Kentucky Warbler In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.11–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.75Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 29% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.75 (95% range 0.11–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.800.161.4
20260.780.151.4
20270.770.141.4
20280.760.121.4
20290.750.111.4

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar HollowOHIO282024
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY152024
Pike S.F.OHIO142013
Scioto TrailOHIO132013
PhelpsKENTUCKY91997
DellOHIO92019
Smokey JctTENNESSEE92022
Pippa PassesKENTUCKY81997
Pine RidgeKENTUCKY81978
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY81995
Shawnee S.F. 2OHIO82019
ClinchportVIRGINIA81978
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY71997
Coal RunOHIO71992
NormalvillePENNSYLVANIA71970
Elk ValleyTENNESSEE72022
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA72021
SunnybrookKENTUCKY62021
NewcomerstwnOHIO61995
MarionVIRGINIA61982
Mt OliveALABAMA52024
TalladegaALABAMA52024
BreedenWEST-VIRGINIA52024
Pine GroveALABAMA42022
MaytownALABAMA42023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.