BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Kentucky Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-66%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
292Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Kentucky Warbler has fallen sharply in Appalachian Mountains: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Kentucky Warbler In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 0.49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.08–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.72Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.08–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 0.49 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.08–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.760.131.4
20270.750.121.4
20280.740.101.4
20290.730.091.4
20300.720.081.4

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Tar HollowOHIO282024
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY152024
Pike S.F.OHIO142013
Scioto TrailOHIO132013
YoungtownALABAMA102025
LakeviewALABAMA102025
PhelpsKENTUCKY91997
DellOHIO92019
Smokey JctTENNESSEE92022
Pippa PassesKENTUCKY81997
Pine RidgeKENTUCKY81978
PaintsvilleKENTUCKY81995
Shawnee S.F. 2OHIO82019
Elk ValleyTENNESSEE82025
ClinchportVIRGINIA81978
MckeeKENTUCKY72025
StaffordsvilKENTUCKY71997
Coal RunOHIO71992
NormalvillePENNSYLVANIA71970
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA72021
SunnybrookKENTUCKY62021
NewcomerstwnOHIO61995
MarionVIRGINIA61982
Mt OliveALABAMA52024
BreedenWEST-VIRGINIA52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.