BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Kentucky Warbler In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+90%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
260Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Kentucky Warbler has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 90% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.52–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.52–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.0 (95% range 0.52–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.00.521.5
20261.00.521.5
20271.00.521.5
20281.00.521.5
20291.00.521.5

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EpesALABAMA222024
MansfieldTENNESSEE192024
SilertonTENNESSEE172024
Lake MaryMISSISSIPPI141987
Holly SpringsMISSISSIPPI142024
Big SandyTENNESSEE142024
LucienMISSISSIPPI112008
Trace AttalaMISSISSIPPI112019
Trace ChickasawMISSISSIPPI112024
PlettenbergLOUISIANA102022
EmbryMISSISSIPPI102024
VinaALABAMA92023
CorinthMISSISSIPPI92024
Trace CentralMISSISSIPPI92022
Trace ChoctawMISSISSIPPI92019
Trace LormanMISSISSIPPI82019
GreensboroALABAMA72024
NorwoodLOUISIANA72024
WalthallMISSISSIPPI71979
Lake ComoMISSISSIPPI72018
SweetlipsTENNESSEE72023
HoltALABAMA62024
Sprott-Cahaba RivALABAMA62014
BargesGEORGIA62024
GreensburgLOUISIANA62022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.