BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Kentucky Warbler In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has edged up: up 14% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+14%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Kentucky Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Kentucky Warbler In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 63% by 2030 — from 0.58 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±170.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+63%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.95Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±170.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 63% by 2030 — from 0.58 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±170.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.930.001.9
20270.940.001.9
20280.940.001.9
20290.940.001.9
20300.950.001.9

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS102025
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI102018
GonzalesLOUISIANA52015
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY42025
BardwellKENTUCKY32003
FrogmoreLOUISIANA32023
SaffellARKANSAS22017
MaynardARKANSAS21997
EnglandARKANSAS22010
ShawLOUISIANA22018
MayflowerLOUISIANA22016
RayvilleLOUISIANA22008
ConcordLOUISIANA22009
Port AllenLOUISIANA22009
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA22025
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA22025
TchulaMISSISSIPPI21975
WintervilleMISSISSIPPI22011
Eagle LakeMISSISSIPPI22012
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI22022
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI22022
EudoraARKANSAS12010
HughesARKANSAS11967
South BendARKANSAS12003
HarrisburgARKANSAS12006

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.