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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Kentucky Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has declined: down 36% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-36%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Kentucky Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Kentucky Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.6–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 13% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.6 (95% range 1.6–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.71.73.6
20272.71.73.6
20282.61.73.6
20292.61.63.6
20302.61.63.6

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Magazine MtnARKANSAS172025
PoyenARKANSAS152007
Turkey CreekLOUISIANA151998
Mount UnionLOUISIANA142025
Four LakesARKANSAS112001
StarkARKANSAS92025
NanceARKANSAS92025
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS92025
PrincetonARKANSAS82014
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA82024
Alexander StTEXAS82025
CrowsARKANSAS71991
WaldronARKANSAS72025
EastonLOUISIANA71990
OakdaleLOUISIANA71994
MarionLOUISIANA61996
EvelynLOUISIANA62023
HopeARKANSAS52025
AshdownARKANSAS52023
Poyen 2ARKANSAS52025
Princeton 2ARKANSAS52022
WomackLOUISIANA52025
IvanLOUISIANA52013
GraysonLOUISIANA52021
EnterpriseLOUISIANA52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.