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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Kentucky Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-34%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Kentucky Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas. See the full index history below.

Kentucky Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.6 (95% range 1.6–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.6–3.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.6 (95% range 1.6–3.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.71.73.7
20262.71.73.6
20272.61.73.6
20282.61.63.6
20292.61.63.6

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PoyenARKANSAS152007
Turkey CreekLOUISIANA151998
Four LakesARKANSAS112001
Mount UnionLOUISIANA112024
NanceARKANSAS92024
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS92024
WomackLOUISIANA92024
PrincetonARKANSAS82014
Magazine MtnARKANSAS82021
EnterpriseLOUISIANA82024
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA82024
CrowsARKANSAS71991
EastonLOUISIANA71990
OakdaleLOUISIANA71994
Ivan 2LOUISIANA72016
Old MiloARKANSAS62024
MarionLOUISIANA61996
GoodwillLOUISIANA62024
EvelynLOUISIANA62023
HopeARKANSAS52024
AshdownARKANSAS52023
Poyen 2ARKANSAS52024
Princeton 2ARKANSAS52022
IvanLOUISIANA52013
GraysonLOUISIANA52021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.