BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Kentucky Warbler In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 386% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+386%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
109Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Kentucky Warbler has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 386% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Kentucky Warbler In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.25 (95% range 0.18–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+9%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.25Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.25 (95% range 0.18–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.240.170.31
20260.240.170.31
20270.240.170.32
20280.250.170.32
20290.250.180.32

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
UnionMISSOURI51999
MarshallILLINOIS42023
FilleyMISSOURI42024
HuntsvilleMISSOURI42024
GeraldMISSOURI42024
WallaceINDIANA32024
DanvilleMISSOURI32024
FrankfordMISSOURI32024
AuburnMISSOURI32021
MilfordMISSOURI32023
MoselleMISSOURI32024
Terre HauteILLINOIS21985
BelleviewILLINOIS22024
YaleILLINOIS22014
EubanksILLINOIS22018
DudleyvilleILLINOIS22022
GalvestonINDIANA22022
Trading PostKANSAS22024
Le LoupKANSAS22016
OlsburgKANSAS22024
RockinghamMISSOURI22024
SticklervillMISSOURI22017
KingsvilleMISSOURI22014
Ash RidgeOHIO21999
WilliamsfldILLINOIS12017

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.