BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Kentucky Warbler In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has surged: up 406% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+406%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Kentucky Warbler has surged in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: up 406% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Kentucky Warbler In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 0.29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.18–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–0.3395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 12% by 2030 — from 0.29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.18–0.33). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.4%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.240.170.32
20270.250.170.32
20280.250.180.32
20290.250.180.33
20300.260.180.33

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GeraldMISSOURI62025
MoselleMISSOURI62025
FilleyMISSOURI52025
HuntsvilleMISSOURI52025
UnionMISSOURI51999
MarshallILLINOIS42023
DanvilleMISSOURI42025
WallaceINDIANA32024
House SpringsMISSOURI32025
Terre HauteILLINOIS21985
DaileyILLINOIS22025
BelleviewILLINOIS22025
BradburyILLINOIS22025
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS22025
YaleILLINOIS22014
GalvestonINDIANA22022
Le LoupKANSAS22016
OlsburgKANSAS22024
RockinghamMISSOURI22024
SticklervillMISSOURI22017
KingsvilleMISSOURI22014
Ash RidgeOHIO21999
ChandlervillILLINOIS12025
WilliamsfldILLINOIS12017
MelroseILLINOIS11992

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.