BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Kentucky Warbler In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Oaks and Prairies has held roughly steady: down 0% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-0%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Kentucky Warbler in Oaks and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Kentucky Warbler In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 20% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.050.000.13
20260.050.000.13
20270.050.000.13
20280.050.000.13
20290.050.000.13

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OakwoodTEXAS31976
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA22024
NobleOKLAHOMA22011
LydiaTEXAS22022
Thornton 2TEXAS21998
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12004
HeyburnOKLAHOMA12014
Oak GroveTEXAS11984
GauseTEXAS11997
DikeTEXAS12024
HearneTEXAS12022
CayugaTEXAS12014
Wills PointTEXAS11998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.