BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Kentucky Warbler In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesForest birds

Kentucky Warbler in Oaks and Prairies has surged: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+91%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Kentucky Warbler has surged in Oaks and Prairies: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Kentucky Warbler In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 63% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-63%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±85.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Kentucky Warbler in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 63% by 2030 — from 0.16 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±85.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.060.000.15
20270.060.000.15
20280.060.000.15
20290.060.000.15
20300.060.000.15

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Kentucky Warbler in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OakwoodTEXAS31976
LydiaTEXAS32025
NobleOKLAHOMA22011
HeyburnOKLAHOMA22025
Thornton 2TEXAS21998
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12004
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA12025
Oak GroveTEXAS11984
GauseTEXAS11997
DikeTEXAS12024
HearneTEXAS12025
CayugaTEXAS12025
Wills PointTEXAS11998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.