BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Juniper Titmouse In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalForest birds

Juniper Titmouse in Sierra Madre Occidental has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+5%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
23Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Juniper Titmouse in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Juniper Titmouse in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.94 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.22–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Juniper Titmouse in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 0.94 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.22–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.202.1
20261.20.202.1
20271.20.212.1
20281.20.212.1
20291.20.222.1

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Juniper Titmouse in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PinetopARIZONA142022
Forest LakesARIZONA112024
Skull ValleyARIZONA82023
Mormon LakeARIZONA71974
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO72022
Carr MtnARIZONA52014
ReserveNEW-MEXICO52023
SunizonaARIZONA41975
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA42014
Clay SpringARIZONA42024
WilliamsARIZONA32019
SprucedaleARIZONA32022
Aztec PeakARIZONA21978
BlueARIZONA21991
RedingtonARIZONA22017
PortalARIZONA22023
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO22024
PrescottARIZONA12019
MaineARIZONA12014
Bartlett ResARIZONA12006
DragoonARIZONA12001
RuckerARIZONA12001
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.