BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Tamaulipan Brushlands has declined: down 45% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-45%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
15Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-45%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 45% by 2030 — from 0.27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.160.000.46
20270.150.000.46
20280.150.000.45
20290.150.000.45
20300.150.000.45

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MillettTEXAS62012
EncinalTEXAS32000
HondoTEXAS22025
Catarina 3TEXAS22024
LaredoTEXAS22013
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS21998
KingsvilleTEXAS11984
Mirando CityTEXAS11981
George WestTEXAS11974
La PryorTEXAS12003
El IndioTEXAS11971
RaymondvilleTEXAS11998
DilleyTEXAS12025
GuerraTEXAS11998
ProgresoTEXAS12005

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.