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Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

-66%Since 1992TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
12Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
19YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1992.

Indigo Bunting In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19792026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.010.000.05
20230.010.000.05
20240.010.000.05
20250.010.000.04
20260.010.000.04

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Red RockNEW-MEXICO22002
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO11998
GageNEW-MEXICO12009
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO12007
RodeoNEW-MEXICO12021
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO11992
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO12005
MesillaNEW-MEXICO11996
Hatchet PeakNEW-MEXICO12009
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO12016
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO12004
ToyahvaleTEXAS11998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.