BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Sierra Madre Occidental has fallen sharply: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

-73%Since 1977
11Routes In Region
22Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Indigo Bunting has fallen sharply in Sierra Madre Occidental: down 73% on the route-weighted index since 1977.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±380.8%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029
0.00Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.2195% range
±380.8%Backtest error
19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.000.000.21
20260.000.000.21
20270.000.000.21
20280.000.000.21
20290.000.000.21

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Aztec PeakARIZONA31978
PomereneARIZONA21998
PrescottARIZONA11982
BlueARIZONA11991
Peña BlancaARIZONA11990
PatagoniaARIZONA12014
Forest LakesARIZONA12024
RedingtonARIZONA12010
McnealARIZONA12019
SprucedaleARIZONA12000
PortalARIZONA12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.