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Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has held roughly steady: up 8% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+8%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
71Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 17–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
17–3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to fall about 15% by 2030 — from 32 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 17–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026271738
2027271738
2028271738
2029271738
2030271738

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DundeeMISSISSIPPI1092022
DeventerMISSOURI952025
Panther Swamp NwrMISSISSIPPI742018
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI692025
South BendARKANSAS592025
FrogmoreLOUISIANA582025
Bardwell 2KENTUCKY572025
TippoMISSISSIPPI562025
MayflowerLOUISIANA552025
Augusta 2ARKANSAS542016
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA532025
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI512025
MaynardARKANSAS502025
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA502025
Warren VickMISSISSIPPI502022
ShawLOUISIANA482024
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE452025
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE442025
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI432021
EnglandARKANSAS422025
BardwellKENTUCKY412003
PawpawTENNESSEE402012
Dahomey NwrMISSISSIPPI382025
HughesARKANSAS372025
Rayville 2LOUISIANA372025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.