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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+56%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has risen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Indigo Bunting In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 28 (95% range 24–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
24–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 28 (95% range 24–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025272331
2026272332
2027282432
2028282432
2029282432

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA1012021
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA902023
LockesburgARKANSAS882019
BlancoOKLAHOMA852016
Four LakesARKANSAS742001
AshdownARKANSAS672023
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA642024
WaldronARKANSAS622024
PocolaOKLAHOMA502016
StarkARKANSAS462024
ManyLOUISIANA461992
BethelOKLAHOMA452024
WechesTEXAS452024
SmyrnaTEXAS452010
NanceARKANSAS432024
Ivan 2LOUISIANA432016
Dry Fork 2ARKANSAS402024
CartervilleLOUISIANA401992
Coal HillARKANSAS392023
WomackLOUISIANA392024
HargisLOUISIANA392011
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA392024
HavanaARKANSAS382021
StephensARKANSAS382024
CrossroadsTEXAS372024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.