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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Indigo Bunting in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has risen sharply: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+56%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
110Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has risen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: up 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Indigo Bunting In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 24–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
24–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 15% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 24–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026272331
2027272332
2028282432
2029282432
2030282432

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA1012021
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA902023
LockesburgARKANSAS882019
Magazine MtnARKANSAS852025
BlancoOKLAHOMA852016
Four LakesARKANSAS742001
AshdownARKANSAS672023
Hee MountainOKLAHOMA642024
NanceARKANSAS562025
PocolaOKLAHOMA502016
Ouachita NfOKLAHOMA502025
Dry Fork 2ARKANSAS472025
ManyLOUISIANA461992
SmyrnaTEXAS452010
StarkARKANSAS432025
StephensARKANSAS422025
CartervilleLOUISIANA401992
Coal HillARKANSAS392023
HargisLOUISIANA392011
Liberty HillTEXAS392025
HavanaARKANSAS382021
BethelOKLAHOMA372025
Princeton 2ARKANSAS362022
Smyrna 2TEXAS362025
Dry ForkARKANSAS352023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.