BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Central Hardwoods has declined: down 26% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-26%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 42 (95% range 36–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
36–4895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Central Hardwoods is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 42 (95% range 36–48). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026423748
2027423648
2028423648
2029423648
2030423648

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JoyKENTUCKY992023
Beaverdam LkILLINOIS922023
ComptonARKANSAS902022
BelknapILLINOIS852025
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY852021
BoxvilleKENTUCKY851983
CollinwoodTENNESSEE852025
PulaskiILLINOIS812025
BrownvilleILLINOIS762025
HaydenMISSOURI722025
Osage BeachMISSOURI722025
Rueter 2MISSOURI722025
RoyaltonILLINOIS692025
Brnt PrairieILLINOIS672025
HillsboroALABAMA661996
Cave In RockILLINOIS652024
BremenILLINOIS622025
KeysburgKENTUCKY612025
SwaimALABAMA602025
MarshallARKANSAS602021
PalaceMISSOURI602025
AkersMISSOURI592025
SanduskyILLINOIS582023
MerrimacKENTUCKY582024
Union HillTENNESSEE582024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.