BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Prairie Hardwood Transition has increased: up 40% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+40%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 10–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 14 (95% range 10–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025141017
2026141017
2027141017
2028141017
2029141017

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N FreedomWISCONSIN522024
GreshamWISCONSIN422024
HatfieldWISCONSIN381998
Fall RiverWISCONSIN362024
CumberlandWISCONSIN332024
GilmantonWISCONSIN332024
MerideanWISCONSIN312024
HamburgMICHIGAN292001
TrempealeauWISCONSIN292024
PardeevilleWISCONSIN292024
GalesburgMICHIGAN272024
AlmenaMICHIGAN272015
KendallWISCONSIN272023
NashvilleMICHIGAN252024
HebronWISCONSIN252024
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN242023
ParisWISCONSIN242024
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA232024
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA232024
SaxevilleWISCONSIN232024
BrownsvilleWISCONSIN232024
KnoxINDIANA222024
PackertownINDIANA222004
Hamburg 2MICHIGAN222024
CadottWISCONSIN222024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.