BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Prairie Hardwood Transition has increased: up 44% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+44%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Indigo Bunting in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Indigo Bunting In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 14 (95% range 10–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 14 (95% range 10–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026141017
2027141017
2028141017
2029141017
2030141017

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MillvilleMINNESOTA462025
N FreedomWISCONSIN402025
HatfieldWISCONSIN381998
GreshamWISCONSIN382025
Fall RiverWISCONSIN372025
LoraineWISCONSIN352025
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA302025
KendallWISCONSIN302025
PardeevilleWISCONSIN302025
MerideanWISCONSIN302025
HamburgMICHIGAN292001
St StephenMINNESOTA292025
AlmenaMICHIGAN272015
NashvilleMICHIGAN262025
ScottvilleMICHIGAN252025
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN242023
CascoWISCONSIN242025
MerrillWISCONSIN232025
New LisbonWISCONSIN232025
PackertownINDIANA222004
GalesburgMICHIGAN222025
Bell Oak 2MICHIGAN222025
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA222025
CochraneWISCONSIN222025
Stevens PtWISCONSIN222023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.