BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 209% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+209%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 209% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Indigo Bunting In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.7 (95% range 1.8–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.7 (95% range 1.8–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.51.73.3
20262.51.73.4
20272.61.73.4
20282.61.83.4
20292.71.83.5

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DaltonKANSAS282024
WellingtonKANSAS172024
JetOKLAHOMA152024
BuckeyeKANSAS142023
DouglasOKLAHOMA102022
Ft Sill EastOKLAHOMA101994
HanoverKANSAS82023
CovertKANSAS82024
Jewell 2KANSAS82024
BerwetKANSAS82024
JamestownKANSAS82024
LibertyNEBRASKA72003
HunterOKLAHOMA72024
CoatsKANSAS62024
SicklesOKLAHOMA62021
WinchellTEXAS62024
HollenbergKANSAS52023
SolomonKANSAS52019
HodgesKANSAS52014
Red CloudNEBRASKA52024
ChesterOKLAHOMA51988
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA52019
GoesselKANSAS42024
BradyNEBRASKA42024
HamptonNEBRASKA42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.