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Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 200% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+200%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
102Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 200% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Indigo Bunting In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.8–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.8–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 1.8–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.51.73.4
20272.61.73.4
20282.61.83.4
20292.61.83.5
20302.71.83.5

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DaltonKANSAS322025
WellingtonKANSAS222025
JetOKLAHOMA152024
BuckeyeKANSAS142023
Wichita Mtns EastOKLAHOMA122025
HanoverKANSAS102025
DouglasOKLAHOMA102022
Ft Sill EastOKLAHOMA101994
Jewell 2KANSAS82024
CoatsKANSAS72025
KanopolisKANSAS72025
JamestownKANSAS72025
LibertyNEBRASKA72003
HunterOKLAHOMA72024
SolomonKANSAS62025
BerwetKANSAS62025
SicklesOKLAHOMA62021
WinchellTEXAS62024
HodgesKANSAS52014
Red CloudNEBRASKA52024
ChesterOKLAHOMA51988
HollenbergKANSAS42025
BradyNEBRASKA42025
HamptonNEBRASKA42025
WoodwardOKLAHOMA42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.