BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-74%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Indigo Bunting In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±84.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±84.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.15
20250.000.000.15
20260.000.000.15
20270.000.000.15
20280.000.000.15

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HaswellCOLORADO22010
PostTEXAS22019
ChanningTEXAS21982
AbarrCOLORADO11983
BoyeroCOLORADO11981
Two ButtesCOLORADO12005
TrincheraCOLORADO12015
Doyle BridgeCOLORADO11995
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO12011
WallaceKANSAS11992
PaxtonNEBRASKA11975
BenkelmanNEBRASKA11997
BereaNEBRASKA11982
CrawfordNEBRASKA12009
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA11999
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO12012
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO11975
Cooley LakeNEW-MEXICO11972
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO12019
LoganNEW-MEXICO11980
HardestyOKLAHOMA12013
FeltOKLAHOMA12013
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA12023
MiamiTEXAS12021
FloydadaTEXAS12011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.