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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+91%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
136Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 91% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Indigo Bunting In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.1–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–4.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.1–4.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.32.04.6
20273.42.04.7
20283.42.14.7
20293.42.14.7
20303.42.14.7

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KasoagNEW-YORK162025
GlenNEW-HAMPSHIRE132025
East HavenVERMONT122025
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS112025
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS102016
MckeeverNEW-YORK102022
Old ForgeNEW-YORK102006
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK101975
GaysvilleVERMONT102025
Northfld FlsVERMONT102025
InletNEW-YORK92016
GreensboroVERMONT92025
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS82025
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE82025
HarmonyMAINE72025
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS72025
Gilmantn I WNEW-HAMPSHIRE72025
WanakenaNEW-YORK72025
LandgroveVERMONT72025
S WallingfrdVERMONT72022
St JohnsburyVERMONT72025
MiddlesexVERMONT72025
DannemoraNEW-YORK62006
SciotaNEW-YORK61998
MarlboroVERMONT62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.