BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+87%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
136Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has surged in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 87% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Indigo Bunting In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.0–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.0–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 4.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.3 (95% range 2.0–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.21.94.5
20263.32.04.6
20273.32.04.6
20283.32.04.6
20293.32.04.6

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GlenNEW-HAMPSHIRE172024
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS132024
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS102016
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS102024
MckeeverNEW-YORK102022
KasoagNEW-YORK102024
Old ForgeNEW-YORK102006
SpeculatorNEW-YORK102024
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK101975
BrooksMAINE92019
HighmarketNEW-YORK92024
InletNEW-YORK92016
GreensboroVERMONT92024
HarmonyMAINE82024
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE82024
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE72024
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE72024
LandgroveVERMONT72024
S WallingfrdVERMONT72022
MiddlesexVERMONT72024
HartfordMAINE62024
Gilmantn I WNEW-HAMPSHIRE62024
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE62024
DannemoraNEW-YORK62006
SciotaNEW-YORK61998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.