BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Indigo Bunting In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Indigo Bunting in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has risen sharply: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+63%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has risen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 63% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Indigo Bunting In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 7.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 5.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.5–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 7.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 5.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.35.411
20278.35.411
20288.35.411
20298.35.411
20308.45.511

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LucerneOHIO432025
Alder CreekNEW-YORK262004
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA252025
MacdougallNEW-YORK182025
PittsfieldOHIO152024
ShaftsburyVERMONT152025
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK142025
CastileNEW-YORK132025
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK132025
NaplesNEW-YORK132025
GarrettsvileOHIO131991
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA131979
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA132025
NashvilleNEW-YORK122018
ByronNEW-YORK122025
ArgyleNEW-YORK122024
HebronOHIO122025
HighlandNEW-YORK112022
OrleansNEW-YORK112025
LattasburgOHIO112025
BristolVERMONT112025
North EastonNEW-YORK102025
New SomersetOHIO101993
HinesburgVERMONT101994
N WilmurtNEW-YORK91998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.