BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Indigo Bunting In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Indigo Bunting in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has risen sharply: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+64%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Indigo Bunting has risen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 64% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Indigo Bunting In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.4 (95% range 5.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
5.5–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Indigo Bunting in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 8.4 (95% range 5.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.35.411
20268.35.411
20278.35.411
20288.45.411
20298.45.511

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Indigo Bunting in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LucerneOHIO382024
Alder CreekNEW-YORK262004
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA242023
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA242024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK232024
PhiladelphiaNEW-YORK192024
NaplesNEW-YORK182024
ByronNEW-YORK162024
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK152024
PittsfieldOHIO152024
GarrettsvileOHIO131991
HebronOHIO132024
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA131979
NashvilleNEW-YORK122018
ArgyleNEW-YORK122024
ShaftsburyVERMONT122024
HighlandNEW-YORK112022
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK112024
CayugaNEW-YORK112024
CastileNEW-YORK112024
E YoungstownNEW-YORK112023
SalemNEW-YORK102024
LattasburgOHIO102024
New SomersetOHIO101993
CloverPENNSYLVANIA102024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.